IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedprb/00002.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Battle of the Forecasts: Mean vs. Median as the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Consensus

Author

Listed:
  • Fatima Mboup
  • Ardy Wurtzel

Abstract

In this Research Brief, we study whether the accuracy of the median forecast in fact exceeds that of the mean forecast. Because we want the results of our study to be as robust as possible, we examine the forecasts for six important survey variables over five forecast horizons, using four alternative measures of the realizations from which we compute the forecast errors, and four alternative sample periods. We apply the well-known Diebol?Mariano (1995) statistical test for relative forecast accuracy between the mean and median consensus projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatima Mboup & Ardy Wurtzel, 2018. "Battle of the Forecasts: Mean vs. Median as the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Consensus," Research Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedprb:00002
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.rb.2018.dec
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/reports/research-briefs/rb181226-battle-of-the-forecasts.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21799/frbp.rb.2018.dec?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Constantin Bürgi & Tara M. Sinclair, 2021. "What does forecaster disagreement tell us about the state of the economy?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 49-53, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    median forecast; mean forecast;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedprb:00002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beth Paul (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbphus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.