IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011ifeb7n2011-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do initial claims overstate layoffs?

Author

Listed:
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Aysegül Sahin

Abstract

Initial claims for unemployment insurance averaged a stubbornly high 468,000 in the year ending December 2010, but have recently come down quickly. Many analysts interpret this as a sign that layoffs were too high to support a strong labor market recovery during most of 2010. However, claims data may have exaggerated layoffs in 2010 because the fraction of unemployed workers applying for benefits was higher than before the recession. If the proportion of eligible workers who applied were held constant, 2010 claims would have averaged roughly 20% less than the actual reading.

Suggested Citation

  • Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2011. "Do initial claims overstate layoffs?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb7.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb7:n:2011-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-04.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    2. Rudi Dornbusch, 2002. "A Primer on Emerging-Market Crises," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 743-754 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1999. "Lessons from the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 709-723, August.
    4. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, pages 21-42.
    7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb7:n:2011-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.