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Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?

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  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted. This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research suggesting that early warning models would not have accurately predicted the relative severity of the current crisis across countries, casting doubt on the ability of such models to forecast similar crises in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep28.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2009:i:sep28:n:2009-30
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    Cited by:

    1. Galina Hale, 2011. "Could we have learned from the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb28.
    2. Zeynep KARACOR & Korhan GOKMENOGLU, 2012. "Predictability Of Financial Crises: Testing K.R.L. Model In The Case Of Turkey," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2, pages 5-16, June.

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    Keywords

    Financial crises ; Econometric models;

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