IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/103472.html

Calibrating Monetary Policy

Author

Abstract

The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff increases shows that preferred policy paths vary depending on one’s assessment of the economic effects of tariffs. If tariffs predominantly affect demand, more policy accommodation may be warranted; if they predominantly affect supply, less accommodation may be appropriate. The high uncertainty surrounding these effects implies a wide range of possible scenarios for the best course of action.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Barnichon & Aayush Singh, 2026. "Calibrating Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2026(17), pages 1-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103472
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2026-17.pdf
    File Function: PDF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2026/06/calibrating-monetary-policy/
    File Function: FRBSF - view
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jason Choi & Taeyoung Doh & Andrew Foerster & Zinnia Martinez, 2022. "Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(30), pages 1-5, November.
    2. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:rim:rimwps:23-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Djeneba Dramé & Florian Léon, 2025. "Do firms react to monetary policy in developing countries? [European Economic Review]," Post-Print hal-05172185, HAL.
    4. Duha T. Altindag & John M. Nunley & R. Alan Seals, 2026. "Mobile Foreigners: Mortgage Lock-In and H-1B Demand," Papers 2605.28904, arXiv.org.
    5. Giammatteo, Michele & Iezzi, Stefano & Zizza, Roberta, 2022. "Pecunia olet. Cash usage and the underground economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 107-127.
    6. J. Carter Braxton & Nisha Chikhale & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Gordon M. Phillips, 2024. "Intergenerational Mobility and Credit," NBER Working Papers 32031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Daza, Brian, 2024. "Government Spending Multipliers and Distribution of Commodity Booms in the Spatial Economy," Working Papers 690, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    8. Manjunath B R, 2026. "Classifying bitcoin’s safe haven role using explainable AI: evidence from US macroeconomic stress episodes," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 4331-4364, April.
    9. Rodriguez, Harold & Colombo, Jefferson, 2025. "Is bitcoin an inflation hedge?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Bullard, James & Grimaud, Alex & Salle, Isabelle & Vermandel, Gauthier, 2026. "Soft landing and inflation scares," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Daníelsson, Jón & Macrae, Robert & Uthemann, Andreas, 2022. "Artificial intelligence and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    13. Alina K. Bartscher & Moritz Kuhn & Moritz Schularick & Paul Wachtel, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Racial Inequality," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(1 (Spring), pages 1-63.
    14. Masahiko Shibamoto & Wataru Takahashi & Takashi Kamihigashi, 2023. "Japan’s monetary policy: a literature review and empirical assessment," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 1215-1254, October.
    15. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Colmer, Jonathan Mark & Evans, Mary F. & Shimshack, Jay, 2023. "Environmental citizen complaints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121326, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. boughabi, houssam, 2025. "Ghanaian Inflation and Income Dynamics: Evidence on Volatility and Neutrality," MPRA Paper 126757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Isaiah Andrews & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "A Model of Scientific Communication," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2117-2142, September.
    19. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    20. Bobasu, Alina & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Ambrocio, Gene & Auer, Simone & Bonfim, Diana & Bottero, Margherita & Brázdik, František & Buss, Ginters & Byrne, David & Casalis, André , 2025. "Monetary policy transmission: a reference guide through ESCB models and empirical benchmarks," Occasional Paper Series 377, European Central Bank.
    21. Camilla Lupiani, 2024. "Taylor Rule and Shadow Rates: theory and empirical analysis," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24218, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:103472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.