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How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew T. Foerster
  • Andreas Hornstein
  • Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte
  • Mark W. Watson

Abstract

Trend GDP growth has slowed about 2.3 percentage points to 1.7% since 1950. Different economic sectors have contributed to this slowing to varying degrees depending on the distinct trends of technology and labor growth in each sector. The extent to which sectors influence overall growth depends on the degree of spillovers to other sectors, which amplifies the effect of sectoral changes. Three sectors with slowing growth and linkages to other sectors?construction, nondurable goods, and professional and business services?account for 60% of the decline in trend GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00198
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    Cited by:

    1. Haishi Li, 2023. "Multinational Production and Global Shock Propagation during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 10349, CESifo.

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