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The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections

Author

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  • Andreas Hornstein
  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • Annemarie Schweinert

Abstract

A labor force participation rate that is at or above its long-run trend is consistent with a labor market at or above full employment. In 2018, the estimated rate is at its trend of 62.8%, suggesting that the labor market is at full employment. Studying the population?s demographic makeup and labor trends for different groups sheds some light on what is driving the aggregate participation trend and implications for the future. Projections based on these trends estimate that labor participation will decline about 2.5 percentage points over the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Annemarie Schweinert, 2018. "The Labor Force Participation Rate Trend and Its Projections," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00176
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    Cited by:

    1. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "Missing Workers and Missing Jobs Since the Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 30717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andreas Hornstein & Marianna Kudlyak & Brigid C. Meisenbacher & David Ramachandran, 2023. "How Far Is Labor Force Participation from Its Trend?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(20), pages 1-5, August.
    3. Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2021. "Maximum Employment and the Participation Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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