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Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?

Author

Listed:
  • Rhys M. Bidder
  • Tim Mahedy
  • Robert G. Valletta

Abstract

With the U.S. labor market at or near maximum employment, assessing trend job growth has become increasingly important. This ?breakeven? rate, which is the pace of job growth needed to maintain a healthy labor market, depends primarily on growth in the labor force. Estimates that account for population aging and potential labor force participation trends suggest that trend growth ranges between about 50,000 and 110,000 jobs per month. Actual job growth has been well above this pace, implying that it can slow substantially in the future without undermining labor market health.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhys M. Bidder & Tim Mahedy & Robert G. Valletta, 2016. "Trend Job Growth: Where's Normal?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00110
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    Cited by:

    1. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2018. "The Disappointing Recovery in U.S. Output after 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. John C. Williams, 2017. "Looking Back, Looking Ahead," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. John C. Williams, 2018. "Supporting Strong, Steady, and Sustainable Growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. John C. Williams, 2018. "Expecting the Expected: Staying Calm When the Data Meet the Forecasts," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. John C. Williams, 2016. "Assessing the New Normal(s). Speech to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco’s 2016 Member Conference, San Francisco, California, October 21, 2016," Speech 171, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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