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The risks to the inflation outlook

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Abstract

Although inflation is currently low, some commentators fear that continued highly accommodative monetary policy may lead to a surge in inflation. However, projections that account for the different policy tools used by the Federal Reserve suggest that inflation will remain low in the near future. Moreover, the relative odds of low inflation outweigh those of high inflation, which is the opposite of historical projections. An important factor continuing to hold down inflation is the persistent effects of the financial crisis.

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  • Vasco Curdia, 2014. "The risks to the inflation outlook," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00036
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2014/november/fed-inflation-monetary-policy-outlook-financial-crisis/el2014-34.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Vasco Curdia, 2016. "Is there a case for inflation overshooting?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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