IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/feddse/y2007inovp3-7n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revising the Texas index of leading indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Joaquin Lopez
  • Keith R. Phillips

Abstract

The Texas Leading Index (TLI), produced monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, combines eight measures that tend to anticipate changes in the Texas business cycle by about three to nine months.. ; The TLI was first published in the Dallas Fed?s Economic Review in July 1988. The index?s approaching 20th anniversary provides an apt occasion to review its real-time performance and look at ways it might be improved to keep up with the changing structure of the Texas economy and the availability of new data sources. ; We find that the TLI performed well in the one recession since 1990 and, used in a model forecasting Texas employment, has done well in real time when compared with other forecasts. Although the current version of the TLI works reasonably well, we suggest changes to the TLI that generally reflect the growing importance of services and globalization and the reduced importance of energy production in Texas business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Joaquin Lopez & Keith R. Phillips, 2007. "Revising the Texas index of leading indicators," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Nov, pages 3-7.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddse:y:2007:i:nov:p:3-7:n:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/swe/2007/swe0706b.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddse:y:2007:i:nov:p:3-7:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.