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Money growth, supply shocks, and inflation

Author

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  • Joseph H. Haslag
  • D'Ann M. Ozment

Abstract

Recently, economists have examined the monetarist and the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve models of inflation to determine which model is a better predictor of the inflation rate. These studies raise an important question: Does money growth contain information that is useful in predicting the inflation rate? ; Joseph H. Haslag and D'Ann M. Ozment specify a general model of the inflation rate that encompasses both the Phillips-curve and the monetarist models. They find that their general, encompassing model is a better predictor of the inflation rate than either the monetarist model or the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve model of inflation. Furthermore, the authors find that changes in money growth play an important, independent role in predicting the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph H. Haslag & D'Ann M. Ozment, 1991. "Money growth, supply shocks, and inflation," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue May, pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedder:y:1991:i:may:p:1-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Sharon Kozicki, 2001. "Why do central banks monitor so many inflation indicators?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 86(Q III), pages 5-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money supply; Inflation (Finance);

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