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High unemployment after the recession: mostly cyclical, but adjusting slowly

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  • Tasci, Murat

Abstract

Unemployment has remained very high since the end of last recession, leading some economists to suggest that the underlying trend of the unemployment rate must have risen, driving unemployment permanently higher. Using a more accurate method of calculating the underlying trend, I find that the long-term rate has not risen and that most of the recent increase in the unemployment rate can be attributed to cyclical causes. But the weak nature of the recovery in real output and the slow rate of worker reallocation are likely to keep unemployment at relatively high levels for the near term.

Suggested Citation

  • Tasci, Murat, 2011. "High unemployment after the recession: mostly cyclical, but adjusting slowly," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jan.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2011:i:jan31:n:2011-2
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