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The great moderation: good luck, good policy, or less oil dependence?

Author

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  • Andrea Pescatori

Abstract

Three explanations have been suggested for the moderation in real GDP and inflation that has occurred in industrialized countries since the 1980s: good luck, better monetary policy, and structural changes in the economy. Recent research finds that better monetary policy explains most of the moderation in inflation, and good luck and the less-intensive use of oil (a structural change) have played a major role in the moderation of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Pescatori, 2008. "The great moderation: good luck, good policy, or less oil dependence?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2008:i:mar
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    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark, 2009. "Is the Great Moderation over? an empirical analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q IV), pages 5-42.
    2. Resat Ceylan & Mehmet Ivrendi & Muhammed Shahbaz & Tolga Omay, 2022. "Oil and stock prices: New evidence from a time varying homogenous panel smooth transition VECM for seven developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1085-1100, January.

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