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Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: trend inflation isn't constant

Author

Listed:
  • Charles T. Carlstrom
  • Timothy S. Fuerst

Abstract

Monetary policymakers look to the Phillips curve—an expression of the relationship between inflation and the degree to which the economy is operating relative to its potential—for information about the cost of actions undertaken to lower inflation. Recent estimations of the curve suggest it is deviating from historical norms. We argue that changes in trend inflation and Fed operating procedures are not being taken into account in these estimations and that when they are, changes in the curve are minor and need not concern policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2008. "Explaining apparent changes in the Phillips curve: trend inflation isn't constant," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jan.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2008:i:jan
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caroline M. Hoxby, 2002. "School Choice and School Productivity (or Could School Choice be a Tide that Lifts All Boats?)," NBER Working Papers 8873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hanushek, Eric A. & Kain, John F. & Rivkin, Steven G. & Branch, Gregory F., 2007. "Charter school quality and parental decision making with school choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(5-6), pages 823-848, June.
    3. Caroline Minter Hoxby, 2003. "School Choice and School Productivity. Could School Choice Be a Tide that Lifts All Boats?," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of School Choice, pages 287-342 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Lamla & Lena Draeger & Damjan Pfajfar, 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," KOF Working papers 13-345, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.

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    Keywords

    Phillips curve ; Inflation (Finance);

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