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Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?

Author

Listed:
  • Michael F. Bryan
  • Linsey Molloy

Abstract

Say you need an accurate forecast of future GDP or inflation. What’s your best bet—the economist who was hot last year or the forecaster in the middle? The record indicates it’s tough to consistently beat the median prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael F. Bryan & Linsey Molloy, 2007. "Mirror, mirror, who’s the best forecaster of them all?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Mar.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2007:i:mar15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caroline M. Hoxby, 2002. "School Choice and School Productivity (or Could School Choice be a Tide that Lifts All Boats?)," NBER Working Papers 8873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hanushek, Eric A. & Kain, John F. & Rivkin, Steven G. & Branch, Gregory F., 2007. "Charter school quality and parental decision making with school choice," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 823-848.
    3. Caroline Minter Hoxby, 2003. "School Choice and School Productivity. Could School Choice Be a Tide that Lifts All Boats?," NBER Chapters,in: The Economics of School Choice, pages 287-342 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64, pages 416-416.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2014. "Is there an optimal forecast combination?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 294-309.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic forecasting;

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