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Does the yield curve signal recession?

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  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

Experience has taught economic forecasters to expect a recession when the yield on short-term Treasury securities rises above the yield on longer-term securities—a situation known as a yield-curve inversion. But some economists suspect the yield curve might not be as reliable a predictor of output growth as it used to be.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph G. Haubrich, 2006. "Does the yield curve signal recession?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2006:i:apr15
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail V. Oet & John M. Dooley & Stephen J. Ong, 2015. "The Financial Stress Index: Identification of Systemic Risk Conditions," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    3. De Santis, Roberto A., 2012. "Quantity theory is alive: the role of international portfolio shifts," Working Paper Series 1435, European Central Bank.

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