Has the stock market become too narrow?
The price of equity has soared during the past five years, stoking concerns that stocks' prices might have risen too far, too fast. These concerns became more pressing as the values of equities rose much more rapidly than earnings during 1998 and early 1999, lifting stocks' prices to record highs relative to their earnings. Although many indexes of stocks' prices continued to rise sharply in 1998 and 1999, fewer stocks contributed to this performance. The market became more narrow as the running count of stocks whose prices were rising fell behind that for stocks whose prices were dropping. ; This article reviews the valuation of the equities constituting the S&P 500 index between 1968 and 1999. Although the ranks of the winners thinned and the gap separating the performance of the winners from laggers increased, the value of most equities remained high by historical standards. Analysts generally expected most companies' earnings to grow comparatively rapidly in subsequent years. The author suggests that this optimism might be the market's principal weakness. For companies' earnings to support the current valuation of equity, the economy must grow unusually rapidly for the next decade and beyond. The evidence does not yet confirm that growth has increased sufficiently or will last long enough to pay the expected dividends.
Volume (Year): (2000)
Issue (Month): Nov ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bos.frb.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:2000:i:nov:p:31-43. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Catherine Spozio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.