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Central bank independence and inflation targeting: monetary policy paradigms for the next millenium?

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  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

Abstract

An expanding body of literature holds two truths about monetary policy to be self-evident: Effective central banks must be independent from undue political interference, and they would do well to target the rate of inflation directly. The genesis of this literature may be found in the concern about the effective use of the significant power wielded by central banks around the world, and in the response to a pivotal and turbulent period in economic history. The marked rise in the level and variability of inflation following the oil price surges of the 1970s led many to question the Fed's and other central banks' commitment to a low and stable inflation rate.> This article takes a critical look at the theory of inherent inflationary bias and the proposed solutions to the bias, focusing particularly on mechanisms for ensuring central bank independence and on inflation targeting. It then examines the robustness of the empirical results that are often used to support the validity of the solutions.

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  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1997. "Central bank independence and inflation targeting: monetary policy paradigms for the next millenium?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 19-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1997:i:jan:p:19-36
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    Cited by:

    1. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    2. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & Berk, Jan Marc, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful Information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 0011, European Central Bank.
    3. Pierre St-Amant & David Tessier, 2000. "Résultats empiriques multi-pays relatifs à l'impact des cibles d'inflation sur la crédibilité de la politique monétaire," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(3), pages 295-310, September.
    4. Brumm, Harold J., 2011. "Inflation and central bank independence: Two-way causality?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 220-222, June.
    5. Pavel Trunin & Kniazev Dmitriy & Satdarov Alexandr, 2010. "Analysis of independence of the central banks of the Russian Federation, the CIS and East European countries," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 133P.
    6. Krause, Stefan & Méndez, Fabio, 2008. "Institutions, arrangements and preferences for inflation stability: Evidence and lessons from a panel data analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 282-307, March.
    7. Adriana Arreaza Coll & Luis Enrique Pedauga, 2007. "Instituciones, estructura económica y política económica: ¿qué hay detrás de la inflación en América Latina?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 7-48, enero-mar.
    8. Mendonça, Helder Ferreira de, 2005. "Central bank independence and its relationship to inflation," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    9. Jens Klose, 2012. "Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-295, September.
    10. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Is Bank Supervision Central to Central Banking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 629-653.
    11. Hielscher, Kai & Markwardt, Gunther, 2012. "The role of political institutions for the effectiveness of central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 286-301.
    12. Mark Mietzner & Dirk Schiereck, 2011. "Staatsfonds als Ankerinvestoren: Eine Note zum Einstieg von Aabar bei Daimler," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(1), pages 92-100, February.
    13. Posso, Alberto & Tawadros, George B., 2013. "Does greater central bank independence really lead to lower inflation? Evidence from panel data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 244-247.
    14. Jens Klose, 2011. "Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function," Ruhr Economic Papers 0286, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Franz R. Hahn & Peter Mooslechner, 1999. "Underpinnings of the European System of Central Banks," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 72(1), pages 49-60, January.
    16. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2009. "Central Bank Independence and Budget Deficits in Developing Countries: New Evidence from Panel Analysis," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 303, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    17. Brumm, Harold J., 2002. "Inflation and Central Bank independence revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 205-209, October.
    18. repec:zbw:rwirep:0286 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Brumm, Harold J., 2006. "The effect of central bank independence on inflation in developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 189-193, February.
    20. Jörg Bibow, 2001. "Reflections on the Current Fashion For Central Bank Independence," Macroeconomics 0108004, EconWPA.
    21. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1997. "Is banking supervision central to central banking?," Working Papers 97-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy;

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