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Determinants of retirement postponement: A survival analysis among civil servants

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  • Oliveira Filho, Carlos Alberto Barbosa de
  • Mattos, Enlinson Henrique Carvalho de
  • Afonso, Luís Eduardo

Abstract

We investigate the factors behind retirement postponement among civil servants in São Paulo, Brazil, using administrative microdata from employees eligiblefor the permanence allowance benefit (abono de permanência). Employing survival analysis and Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS), we identify a mixed negative binomial distribution as the best fit. Retirement timing is influenced by institutional conditions and individual factors like gender, marital status, and education. Police officers delay retirement by 44.22%,while educators retire 32.77% earlier. Less educated workers show a 5.98% delay increase. These findings provide insights for pension design by analyzing key retirement decision factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliveira Filho, Carlos Alberto Barbosa de & Mattos, Enlinson Henrique Carvalho de & Afonso, Luís Eduardo, 2025. "Determinants of retirement postponement: A survival analysis among civil servants," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 79(4), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:79:y:2025:i:4:a:92839
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