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Caracterização dos ciclos de negócios nos setores produtivos da indústria brasileira

Author

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  • da Silva, Cristiano da Costa
  • Neto, Nicolino Trompieri
  • Castelar, Ivan
  • Gadelha, João

Abstract

Este trabalho examina os ciclos econômicos no setor industrial do Brasil no período de 1996.Q1-2016.Q3. Adotou-se a análise multiresolução Wavelet para decompor as séries dos subsetores industriais, e da Indústria Geral, em tendência e ciclo. O setor Extrativa Mineral apresentou um ciclo relativamente mais volátil e independente dos demais. A análise de co-movimentos no domínio do tempo aponta que flutuações cíclicas em Eletricidade e Gás possuem capacidade preditiva sobre o ciclo de Construção Civil. A análise no domínio da frequência confirma que o subsetor de Trasformação e Indústria Geral apresentam um comportamento pró-cíclico frente a choques transitórios, sendo fortemente sincronizadas.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva, Cristiano da Costa & Neto, Nicolino Trompieri & Castelar, Ivan & Gadelha, João, 2023. "Caracterização dos ciclos de negócios nos setores produtivos da indústria brasileira," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 76(4), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:76:y:2023:i:4:a:82225
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