Evaluating high-speed rail’s impact on regional tourism performance

Purpose – This study explores the impacts of high-speed rail (HSR) on regional tourism performance. This study aims to identify short-term shocks, medium-term causal effects and long-term dynamic trends and analyze heterogeneous influences across cities with different scales and resource endowments.Design/methodology/approach – Based on 2005–2023 panel data of Chinese prefecture-level cities, this research adopts the Synthetic Control Method, instrumental variable difference-in-differences and a Bayesian dynamic panel model for multi-angle empirical analysis and conducts multi-dimensional heterogeneity tests.Findings – HSR significantly boosts tourism gross domestic product, employment and revenue with cumulative lag effects. Its impacts are stronger in large and tourism-intensive cities. Regional disparities exist across geographic areas and urban development levels.Social implications – The findings support differentiated HSR and tourism policies. It helps balance regional development, promote decent jobs, advance sustainable tourism and ecological governance and align with inclusive growth goals.Originality/value – This integrated multi-method framework addresses endogeneity and uncertainty. It enriches policy evaluation methods for transport infrastructure and provides references for tourism development worldwide.