Assessment of Sectoral Multiplier Effects of Employment in the Regional Economy

The article addresses the problem of obtaining estimates of multiplier effects for regional employment generated by changes in final demand for manufactured products, broken down by types of economic activity. For the economy of the model region, Khabarovsk Krai, a quantitative analysis of sectoral employment multipliers for 2017–2021 is conducted based on regionalized national input-output tables using the modified Flagg localization coefficient (FLQ+) method. The industries with the highest employment multipliers are identified (in the model region these are education (2017–2021), production of textiles, clothing, leather and leather goods (2017–2021), healthcare and social services (2017), and the activities of hotels and catering establishments (2018–2021)). Based on the matrix of total labor costs, the structure of multiplier effects is determined for each of the 33 studied activities: changes in employment in the production of final products (direct effect) and in the production of intermediate products (indirect effect). The industries for which indirect effects prevail over the direct ones are identified (in the model region these are production of coke and petroleum products (2017–2021), mining (2017–2020), metallurgical production and production of finished metal products (2017–2021), production of chemicals and chemical products (2017–2021), production of food products, including beverages, and tobacco (2017, 2019)). The presence of the relevant industries confirms the need to take into account inter-industry interactions when assessing the sectoral structure of labor demand. The results obtained for the model region are compared with the results of studies conducted for the national economy, and their consistency is revealed