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The Recessive Outcomes of Emu Policies: Analysis of the Italian Experience, 1998-2008

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  • Rita Canale Rosaria
  • Napolitano Oreste

Abstract

The EMU assigns a marginal role to economic policy and relies on the idea that, if prices are kept constant, there will be an automatic convergence towards long-run equilibrium income. These beliefs represent the theoretical underpinnings of fiscal and monetary policy strategies in Europe. In order to highlight the weakness of these foundations, this paper evaluates empirically the effects of public expenditure and interest rate setting on equilibrium income in Italy from 1998 to 2008. Our analysis supports the conclusions that government spending has a positive impact on national income while monetary policy strategy has a negative impact. Moreover, the high level of debt does not produce negative effects on GDP. Finally, at a time of financial crisis, these results are reinforced for fiscal policy, but weakened for monetary policy. The paper finally states that the EMU’s rigid rules for both fiscal and monetary policy have recessive outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rita Canale Rosaria & Napolitano Oreste, 2011. "The Recessive Outcomes of Emu Policies: Analysis of the Italian Experience, 1998-2008," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 0(104), pages 89-111.
  • Handle: RePEc:fan:steste:v:html10.3280/ste2011-104005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; EMU; Italy;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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