Dalla credibilit? alla speculazione: la crisi del 1992-93 del Sistema monetario europeo

Dalla credibilit? alla speculazione: la crisi del 1992-93 del Sistema monetario europeo (di Pompeo Della Posta) - ABSTRACT: We consider the events that from the creation of the European Monetary System (EMS) lead to the 1992-93 crisis. The adoption of the Single European Act imposed the liberalisation of capi-tal movements. In order to avoid the risks implied by such a liberalisation, the Basle-Nyborg Agreement was signed, with which unlimited support was promised to the countries subject to speculative attacks. After a critical analysis of the Delors Report and of the Maastricht Treaty, we try to identify the possible causes of the 1992-93 crisis. The different explanations seem to be re-conciled when comparing the future, expected and discounted benefits with the present costs im-plied by the adhesion to the EMS. Such an approach however, neglects the role played by the availability of foreign reserves and ignores that, independently from any borrowing costs, market imperfections may make unavailable the foreign reserves necessary to defend the exchange rate.