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Il fenomeno della disoccupazione in Italia negli ultimi dieci anni: alcune risposte da un modello corretto con aspettative razionali

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  • Oreste Napolitano

Abstract

Il fenomeno della disoccupazione in Italia negli ultimi dieci anni: alcune risposte da un modello corretto con aspettative razionali (di Oreste Napolitano) - ABSTRACT: This study shows, within an insider-outsider model, the persistence of unemployment in Italy in the period 1988-1998. The basic model has been analysed under the rational expectation hypothesis in order to capture the effects on the employment level after a shock. We found the presence of hysteresis in the labour market, that is, the unemployment variable follows a random walk. Moreover, using a Kalman filter approach, we determined a "backward-looking" process for the employment coefficient "at" . The empirical results show that, when the two sub-samples are considered, the insider-outsider model is still valid but the coefficient "at" shows a consistent decrease. An explanation of this decrease is related to the incomes policy pursued by the government since the 1992. JEL Classification: J2 J3 E4

Suggested Citation

  • Oreste Napolitano, 2000. "Il fenomeno della disoccupazione in Italia negli ultimi dieci anni: alcune risposte da un modello corretto con aspettative razionali," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2000(72).
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:steste:v:html10.3280/ste2000-072003
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    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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