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Tüketim Harcamaları Ve Güven

Author

Listed:
  • Oya ERDOĞDU

    (Ankara University)

Abstract

Ömür boyu gelir hipotezi gereği hanehalkı tüketim harcamaları gelirin bir fonksiyonudur. Bu çalışma belirsizlikler altında, bekleyişlerin bu ilişkiyi nasıl etkilediğini analiz etmektedir. Tahmin sonuçları kompakt bir seri olan güven endekslerinin değil, ancak hanehalkının gelir düzeyi göstergesi olarak tanımlanabilecek satınalma gücü ve iş olanakları bekleyişlerinin, cari dönem tüketim harcamaları üzerinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bekleyişlerin dahil edildiği modellerin tüketim harcamalarının gelir ile açıklanamayan kısmını azalttığı ve modellerin öngörü performansını artırdığı görülmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Oya ERDOĞDU, 2007. "Tüketim Harcamaları Ve Güven," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 18(64), pages 93-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:18:y:2007:i:64:p:93-102
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10639
    Note: [English Title] HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES AND CONFIDENCE [English Abstract] The permanent income hypothesis states a strong relationship between household consumption and lifetime income. Based on this argument, this study, following previous studies in that respect, analyzes the possible impact of expectations in this relationship in case of uncertainty in the model. The empirical analyses for Turkey could not find a statistically significant relationship between household consumption, income and confidence index which is used as a proxy for income expectations. However, besides, expectations on purchasing power and employment opportunities having statistically signifıcant effect on household consumption expenditures, they do decrease the percentage of unexplained variance. [English Keywords] Consumption, Expectations, Confidence İndex
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