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Para Krizi Modellerine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme

Author

Listed:
  • Umut ÇAKMAK

    (Gazi University)

Abstract

1980 ve 1990'lı yıllarda yaşanan para krizlerini açıklamak üzere üç temel kriz modeli geliştirilmiştir. Para krizlerinin nedenlerini temel makro ekonomik göstergelerde meydana gelen bozulmalara bağlayan birinci-nesil para krizi modellerini; 1994 Meksika krizinden hareketle açıklamaya çalışan ve para krizlerinin nedenlerini temel makro ekonomik göstergelerde meydana gelen bozulmalardan ziyade, iktisadi ajanların beklentileri ile fiili politika sonuçları arasındaki etkileşimin, kendi kendini gerçekleştiren beklentiler vasıtasıyla krizlere yol açabileceğini vurgulayan ikinci-nesil para krizi modelleri takip etmiştir. Son olarak da, Asya krizini çerçevesinde para ve bankacılık krizleri arasında ilişki kurmaya çalışan ve ikiz krizler olarak da adlandırılan üçüncü-nesil para krizi modelleri geliştirilmiştir. Makale, bu üç temel para krizi modellerinin özetlenmesini ve sonuçlarını içermektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Umut ÇAKMAK, 2007. "Para Krizi Modellerine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme," Ekonomik Yaklasim, Ekonomik Yaklasim Association, vol. 18(62), pages 1-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eyd:eyjrnl:v:18:y:2007:i:62:p:1-31
    DOI: 10.5455/ey.10624
    Note: [English Title] An Evaluation of the Currency Crises Models [English Abstract] Basically three types of models have been developed in an attempt to explain the genesis of a large number of currency crises that occurred in the 1980's and the 90's. The 1st generation models which emphasized the importance of deterioration of the fundamentals in explaining the onset of the crises were followed by the 2nd generation currency crisis models that came to vogue in the wake of the 1994 Mexican crisis, which models noted that the fundamentals are very rarely --if ever-- so weak as to necessarily trigger a crisis and which emphasized the key role of market expectations and of the dynamics of "self fulfilling prophecy" in precipitating the crisis. Later, the 3rd generation models were develloped in an attempt to explain the relations between currency and banking crises, in particular in the context of the East Asian crisis of 1997. This article summarizes these three types of currency crisis models and their main conclusions. [English Keywords] Currency Crises, Banking Crises, Self Fulfilling Prophecy
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