Do Drought and Agricultural Factors Influence Migration in Serbia? Insights from a Segmentation Study

The main aim of this paper is to conduct an intraregional analysis in Serbia and to examine how districts (NUTS 3) can be grouped based on drought and agricultural vulnerability, with the supplementary aim of analysing how these district segments differ in their internal emigration rates. Segmentation analysis was conducted for three reference years (2002, 2011, and 2022) using an advanced biclustering approach. The results indicate overall changes in drought, agricultural, and population migration variables across the periods, although substantial cross-district heterogeneity remains. The analysis clearly shows that, at the district level, drought parameters increased over the 20-year period. Another aspect that attracts attention is the temporal evolution of the variation among districts. For some variables, the variation is stable during the observation period (Share of permanent forest, grassland and other natural or semi-natural areas in agricultural land use, Share of agricultural land in use, and Emigration rate). This indicates that even if the mean values changed over time, all districts experienced the same magnitude of change. On the other hand, the variation of Share of Agricultural Population between districts is decreasing, indicating convergence over time. Across the observed periods, five distinct segments were consistently identified, revealing both stable and evolving district- and region-specific patterns. No statistically significant difference in the Emigration rate was found between the defined segments across the observed periods. By uncovering both the shared trajectories and divergent developments, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of population migration dynamics under drought and environmental challenges and enables the identification of districts and district segments threatened by these challenges. The insights from this study identify the segments (groups) of districts where emigration is more pronounced and could serve as a signal to policymakers. We believe that the presented intraregional study could act as an impetus for further detailed analysis on the nexus between environmental challenges and population dynamics in Serbia.