Gender differences in cohort fertility patterns in Serbia: the role of educational gradient

This paper represents the first contribution to the research of gender differences in the cohort fertility patterns in Serbia. We used the specially processed results of the 2022 Census that include one-year cohorts of women and men born in the 1940-1982 and 1940-1977 periods, respectively. Using parity progression rates, we examined the changes and gender patterns of completed cohort fertility from the perspective of educational differentials given the role of educational expansion in fertility changes in recent decades. Decomposition analysis showed that a marked increase in childlessness and the declining progression to second birth across cohorts born after 1960 is the key reason of the decline in completed fertility of both sexes. The development of the relationship between the education and fertility led to the changes in the educational differentials in fertility of both sexes, but also to a very pronounced gender gap in the patterns of these differentials. Convergence in completed fertility across different educational groups in the older cohorts of men turned to a divergence between the low-educated and the highly educated in the younger generations, resulting in a positive educational gradient in recent completed fertility of men. Negative educational gradient in completed fertility was observed across all cohorts of women, with the gap between the low- and highly educated doubled among the younger compared to the older cohorts. The development of educational differentials in childlessness across cohorts led to a gender convergence among the highly educated and divergence among the low-educated in Serbia, contrary to the process that took place in more gender egalitarian societies. The lack of convergence in the progression to second and third birth across different educational groups of both sexes, which is particularly pronounced among women, suggests that the more educated a person is, the more difficult it is for them to expand their family due to the lack of both institutional support for parenthood and gender equity within the family. The identified patterns of completed cohort fertility in Serbia confirm theoretical assumptions and findings from other countries that in the societies with more pronounced gender inequality and family support policies that are not sufficiently gender and parentally sensitive, higher opportunity costs of parenthood lead to lower fertility, and vice versa.