Primary-School-Age Population Change in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Effects of Demographic Factors

The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (henceforth referred to as “the Federation”) has been characterised by a decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic, social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20 and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the federation’s overall population policy.