IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eto/stanov/v47y2009i2id149.html

Serbia as Immigration Country – Foreseeable Future?

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Nikitović

    (Demographic Research Centre)

Abstract

The question whether migration will be central demographic issue in the future of Serbia is assessed through probabilistic population projection. Therefore, the problem on formulating international migration hypothesis, specifically estimation of uncertainty attached to future migration flow, is highlighted. For that purpose, experiences from probabilistic projections of the countries that undergone substantial changes of international migration after joined EU were used. Forecast results up to 2050 shows that Serbia will face significant population ageing with no chances to revert the process during the projection horizon. With respect to decreasing trend of population size, fertility increase is one of two indispensable conditions if Serbia wants to restore its current size. The other is huge immigration that could be accomplished if the country experience fundamental political and economic changes in the forthcoming period. Even then, there is only 15 percent probability that Serbia’s population size in 2050 will be higher than it is today. However, if actual emigration pattern of international migration turns into immigration one during the next decades, the uncertainty attached to forecasted indicators of population ageing would be considerably decreased.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Nikitović, 2009. "Serbia as Immigration Country – Foreseeable Future?," Stanovnistvo, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia, vol. 47(2), pages 31-52, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:47:y:2009:i:2:id:149
    DOI: 10.2298/STNV0902031N
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/149
    File Function: Abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/149/140
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2298/STNV0902031N?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:47:y:2009:i:2:id:149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marko Galjak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.