Demographic Determinants of Population Aging in FR Yugoslavia. A model Approach

The paper presents basic directions and intensity of change in age structure of the population in FR Yugoslavia broken down by its republics and provinces during the period after the World War II. A special emphasis is placed on demographic determinants of population aging, particularly from 1961 to 1991. A method of demographic projections was used to assess the impact of changes in fertility, mortality and external migration on transformation in the age structure. The analysis is based on the results of simulations on four population models constructed on the basis of the initial age structure in 1961 and various combinations of assumptions on movement in fertility and mortality in the course of 30 years to come. The impact of changes in components of demographic growth on the process of aging were obtained by comparing age structures of model populations in 1991. The author argues that the decline in fertility directly induced aging from the base of the age pyramid and, indirectly, from top of the pyramid. Changes in mortality had a twofold impact on the demographic aging: the process was decelerated by the decline in mortality of the young and, at the same time, accelerated by the increase in life expectancy of the old. On the overall, the decline in mortality in the FR of Yugoslavia in 1961-1991, caused deceleration in the population aging but its impact on the change in age composition was of a much lesser importance than that of the crucially opposite impact caused by changes in fertility. The impact of external migration, i.e., the negative migratory balance at the level of the FR of Yugoslavia was the least significant for the process of demographic aging. Although the impact of migration was very weak, they also induced an increase in the population aging.