Effect on the Finances of Local Governments in the Case of an Earthquake Occurring Directly Beneath the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Projections by Year and Prefecture(in Japanese)

Very few studies have made projections by local government unit or number of years elapsed after an earthquake disaster occurring directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area (northern Tokyo Bay earthquake) for the amount of the burden that local governments would bear, the amount that would be spent from general revenue revenues, or the amount of change that would be made to the ordinary local allocation tax. Therefore, I estimated the impact of an earthquake occurring directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area on the finances of local governments. The estimation revealed the following insights. First, the financial burden that local governments would bear for earthquake disaster related projects in the case of the earthquake would be 24.3–30.4 trillion yen over five years, and in the third year after the earthquake disaster, the burden ratio to general revenue resources would be 33.6–42.1% and the ratio to the total amount of the local allocation tax would be 32.5–39.8%, which indicates great financial burdens for the central and local governments. Second, the burden that local governments would bear for rehabilitation projects would have little effect on the finances of local governments, whereas the burden for reconstruction projects would have an immense effect on the finances of local governments. Third, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government would bear the greatest burden of the local governments in the case of an earthquake occurring directly beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area, but Saitama Prefecture would bear the least burden.