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Brexit and International Road Freight Transport to and from the UK by Polish and Irish Transport Companies

Author

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  • Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup
  • Pawel R. Kozubek

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this article is to determine whether there has been a significant change in the volume of international road freight transport to and from the United Kingdom carried out by Polish and Irish hauliers after Brexit. Design/Methodology/Approach: A thorough analysis of changes in freight volumes (in thousands of tonnes) was conducted on a quarterly basis – before and after 2021. To determine whether there was a statistically significant difference related to the new economic, legal, and logistical situation resulting from Brexit, data published by the UK Department for Transport were used. The data was coded such that a "1" was assigned to negative change (i.e. crisis) and a "0" to all other cases. To assess the significance of differences between two proportions, a quantitative methodology based on the likelihood ratio and Fisher’s exact test were adopted. Findings: In the first quarter of 2021, the transportation of goods from the UK by cross-trade trucks decreased by 52% and 37%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of 2017 for vehicles registered in Poland and Ireland. At the same time, transportation to the UK fell by 32% and 27%, respectively. In the context of negative changes related to Brexit, significant discrepancies were identified in the area of transport by Irish-registered trucks (trucking to and from UK) and cross-trade transport from the UK in the case of Polish-registered trucks and to the UK in the case of Irish carriers. Practical Implications: The results are important for identifying challenges and adjusting transport strategies, particularly in the event of further changes in the terms of trade between the EU and the UK. They are also useful for developing Brexit-related recommendations in the area of transport policy and road transport regulation. Originality/Value: The study’s value lies in the use of reliable national statistics combined with the small-sample dependence testing method.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarzyna Brzozowska-Rup & Pawel R. Kozubek, 2025. "Brexit and International Road Freight Transport to and from the UK by Polish and Irish Transport Companies," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 759-779.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xxviii:y:2025:i:2:p:759-779
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Edoardo Bressanelli & Nicola Chelotti & Wilhelm Lehmann, 2021. "Managing Disintegration: How the European Parliament Responded and Adapted to Brexit," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 16-26.
    2. Alina Sîrbu & Diletta Goglia & Jisu Kim & Paul Maximilian Magos & Laura Pollacci & Spyridon Spyratos & Giulio Rossetti & Stefano Maria Iacus, 2024. "International mobility between the UK and Europe around Brexit: a data-driven study," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 1451-1482, October.
    3. Dimitrios Paraskevadakis & Adeyeri Ifeoluwa, 2022. "An industry-level analysis of the post-Brexit and post-Covid 19 Ro-Ro ferry market and critical maritime freight transport links between the UK and the EU," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, December.
    4. Jun Du & Emine Beyza Satoglu & Oleksandr Shepotylo, 2023. "How did Brexit affect UK trade?," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 266-283, March.
    5. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    6. Edoardo Bressanelli & Nicola Chelotti & Wilhelm Lehmann, 2021. "Managing Disintegration: How the European Parliament Responded and Adapted to Brexit," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 16-26.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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