A Data Driven Analysis on Growth Factor Of COVID-19 and Its Correlation with Malaria Cases in India

Introduction: COVID-19 coronavirus originated from Wuhan, China, had spread to more than 200 countries worldwide up to 3rd May 2020 [1]. The cumulative number of confirmed cases was 84393 in China and 3264847 totals in other countries [1]. All countries have taken measures to contain the outbreak of COVID-19. In India, till March about 15, 24, 266 passengers had been screened at the airports and 12,431 at the seaports [2]. Till 3rd May 2020 total 42533 confirmed COVID 2019 cases had been registered across India [2]. Aim: In this study, we will analyse the data collected from different available official websites who reported the situation of COVID-19 infection in India. Method: The confirmed case of COVID-19 infection was defined as a case with a positive corona test report. Suspected cases were defined as a case with symptoms of COVID-19 infection but not confirmed. Growth factor more than 1 was showing the increasing number of cases, while growth factor between 0 to 1 showing a decline in the number of cases. Results: The average growth factor from 21 January 2020 to 3rd May 2020 was 1.13 and before the first lockdown and after the first lockdown it was measured 1.10 & 1.18 respectively. On 5th March 2020, the growth factor was highest (Growth factor = 22). Growth factor and number of new cases coming were significantly positive correlated (r = 0.39, p = 0.035). Conclusion: The future daily incidence size largely dependent on the change of new upcoming cases day by day. Our findings indicate that the social distancing and regulation measures were working and capability of COVID-19 to spread in India can diminish if these defensive estimates will act in a fitting way.