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Road Accident Fatalities Forecasting Models using Smeed’s Regression Analysis: A Case Study

Author

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  • Erjola Cenaj

    (Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania)

  • Raimonda Dervishi

    (Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania)

Abstract

Fatalities and injuries triggered by road traffic accidents are worthwhile traffic safety problems, especially for developing and developed countries. Several academic works have convinced that using data from a given group, a weighty relationship between the number of road traffic fatalities (RTFs) and registered vehicle, population size is designed. This paper uses historical data from over 10 years in Albania to identify the relationship between the same factors. The study divulges that such a relationship cannot be impacted with a good degree of exactness by Smeed's Equation (SE). Additionally, road accident prediction models by the structural form of Smeed’s regression method enable estimating RTFs tied to population size and number of active vehicles. The modified forms of SE are the key to a satisfactory match in predicting RTFs in Albania.

Suggested Citation

  • Erjola Cenaj & Raimonda Dervishi, 2024. "Road Accident Fatalities Forecasting Models using Smeed’s Regression Analysis: A Case Study," European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research, European Open Science, vol. 9(6), pages 20-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:epw:ejeng0:v:9:y:2024:i:6:id:63213
    DOI: 10.24018/ejeng.2024.9.6.3213
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