Model for Estimating Travel Time on Dynamic Highway Networks in Akure, Ondo State Nigeria

Travel time variability or distribution is very important to travel time reliability studies in transportation systems. This study aimed at developing a multivariate regression model for estimating travel times for dynamic highway networks in Akure Metropolis. The independent variables for the model are Traffic volume, density, speed of vehicles, and traffic flow while the dependent response variable is the Travel time. The estimated travel time was compared with the observed travel time from the real field data and the estimation using the regression model reveals a significant level of accuracy. Also, it was discovered that traffic volume, speed, density, and flow were highly correlated with travel time. The result analyzed using descriptive statistics in the SPSS software environment reveals an R2 value of 0.998, thereby indicating that the independent variables accounted for 99% of travel time in the study area. The Hypothesis tested at 95% confidence level using ANOVA unveils that there is no significant difference between the observed and estimated travel time model. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.049 shows that the model performed very well and was very efficient for analyzing the probabilistic relation between travel time and the independent variables. The study recommends the use of the developed travel time model for estimating travel time within the study area.