Scenario Planning of Pertamina Patra Niaga Business Strategy to Address the Growth of the Indonesian Electric Vehicle Market

PT Pertamina Patra Niaga is facing an era of energy transition, and one of the biggest phenomena is the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Massive EV adoption will impact Patra Niaga’s future business, and they must prepare a strategy to deal with these changes. This research aims to determine the factors that influence EV adoption in Indonesia and propose strategies that need to be carried out by Patra Niaga. The literature review shows that internal and external factors are very influential in determining Patra Niaga’s strategy. The research design is qualitative, with data obtained from primary sources from interviews and secondary data sources, including industry documents, reports, and journals. Using the scenario planning method with the PESTEL approach, the paper identifies four possible scenarios for the future of EV adoption in Indonesia. The possible scenarios are green tech frontier, policy-driven change, market-led innovation, and stagnant development. Environment analysis conducted both external analysis and internal analysis. The research uses Porter’s Five Forces to identify rivalry among the industry players for external analysis. Meanwhile, the internal analysis uses the use VRIO Framework to identify the competitive advantage of the company and the strength and weakness analysis to determine the opportunities and threats for the company. Finally, the research uses the BCG Matrix to develop a strategy for each scenario. Based on the BCG Matrix, the proposed strategies are to invest more in the EV infrastructure where the scenario is green tech frontier, to invest or divest where the scenario is policy-driven, to keep the EV infrastructure business running where the scenario is market-led innovation, and to s liquidated where the scenario is stagnant development. The chosen strategy is suggested to be implemented based on the probability of occurrence for each of the scenarios within a timeframe from the year 2024 to 2035 by involving various divisions in the company, including marketing, business development, and project leader of the EV division.