Adaptive Scenario Planning Development for Indonesian Upstream Oil and Gas Industry: Case Study of PT Kelola Migas in Managing Mature Field Phase

The global economic conditions after the COVID pandemic, which have not fully recovered, the vulnerability of global oil prices due to unpredictable external factors, global pressure for decarbonization efforts and the fulfillment of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) parameters to support energy transition, the less competitive condition of oil and gas reserves in Indonesia, and the contract schemes and fiscal incentives in Indonesia that are considered unattractive by investors are part of the tip of the iceberg of uncertainty in the external conditions of the upstream oil and gas industry in Indonesia. In relation to the above conditions, PT Kelola Migas (PT KM) requires a comprehensive strategy formulation process based on a long-term understanding of potential future scenarios that focus on external factors as uncontrollable factors that will significantly impact the company. This research is conducted with a focus on the use of adaptive scenario planning methodology, which will provide a fresh perspective for PT KM in utilizing strategic tools oriented towards the medium and long term. Exploring the implications and mitigation options for each scenario is conducted to provide strategic choices in facing potential situations. The identification of early warning signals for each scenario is also carried out as indicators of changes in the current situation towards one scenario or another.