Scenario Planning of PLN Indonesia Power in 2030: To Be a Leading Green and Sustainable Power Generation Company

Following the company's transformation in 2023, PLN IP's generating capacity now reached 21 GW, establishing it as the largest power generation company in Southeast Asia. However, most of PLN IP's power plants rely on fossil fuels. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formulate a strategy that enables PLN IP to become a leading sustainable company and support Indonesia's target of achieving a renewable energy mix of 24.8% by 2030. The scenario planning method is used in this study to anticipate and prepare for future critical uncertainties that may impact the business of PLN IP. Critical uncertainties are obtained from analyzing the company's business, which is then elaborated with the results of semi-structured interviews from internal and external stakeholders. Five scenarios have been identified, namely: Parking the Bus, Kick & Rush, Tiki Taka, Gegenpressing, and Catenaccio. Each scenario is driven by a different critical uncertainty, consisting of electricity supply and demand, fuel prices, regulations, technological advancements, and investments. Key leading indicators of driving factors have been determined to detect potential scenario trends as early warning signals. This study is expected to serve as a reference for policymakers and stakeholders in the electricity sector to apply a balanced strategy for providing clean, reliable, and affordable electricity in Indonesia.