Scenario Planning of Islamic Banking Industry Development in Indonesia

Islamic banking has become known in Indonesia since the operation of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, which was initiated by the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI), the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) and the government, in 1992. The large number of Islamic banking players existing now in fact does not automatically boost the growth of the market share of Islamic banking assets to total bank’s assets in Indonesia. Islamic banking had experienced a trap of 5% market share for quite a long time before finally being able to pass it in 2016 and reached 7,03% in August 2022. The purpose of this study is to provide strategy through scenario planning for the development of the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia so that it can add insight and alternatives for all relevant stakeholders. This research will use a qualitative research methodology that uses primary data and secondary data. Scenario planning is developed based on the results of an analysis of the driving forces which are considered as critical uncertainties. The driving forces themselves are obtained based on the results of an analysis using the Porter's 5 Forces framework, PESTEL and SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis to find out its relevancy. These driving forces were then discussed through in-depth interviews with respondents to determine which were the most critical (Critical Uncertainties). Two critical uncertainties defined during this study are Government and Regulations Support as well as Prices and Services. Four (4) scenarios are built using those two critical uncertainties following the scenario planning methodology. The scenarios are called Fast and Furious, Imperfect, The Survivor, and The Skyfall.