Decision Making for General Trade Business Expansion in the Indonesia FMCG Distribution Industry: PT SAM

The fast-moving consumer goods industry in Indonesia is one of the dynamic sectors in Southeast Asia by strong population growth, increasing purchasing power, and evolving consumer behavior. PT SAM, an established distribution and logistics provider with strong positions in Modern Trade (MT) and e-Commerce, seeks to expand into the General Trade (GT) channel to enhance market coverage and competitive position. This research aims to develop a structured decision-making framework for GT business expansion by evaluating the financial, operational, and strategic feasibility of alternative expansion strategies. The study adopts the Kepner–Tregoe framework, focusing on Decision Analysis and Potential Problem Analysis. In Decision Analysis, decision-makers define “Must” criteria as non- negotiable requirements and “Want” criteria as desirable factors that influence the overall attractiveness of each alternative. Potential Problem Analysis is applied to identify possible risks associated with each strategic option and to formulate preventive and contingency actions. A mixed- method is used to integrate both quantitative and qualitative methods. Secondary data are obtained from financial reports and industry reports, while primary data are obtained through semi-structured interviews and Focus Group Discussions with key internal stakeholders. The analysis is conducted in three stages. First, secondary data are used to evaluate the baseline conditions of three strategic alternatives: acquisition, establishment of a new company greenfield, and joint venture (JV). Second, primary data are used to define decision criteria and capture stakeholder perspectives. Third, the Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis framework is applied to assess and rank the alternatives, followed by Potential Problem Analysis to identify risks and mitigation strategies. Results indicate that the acquisition option is eliminated at the Must criteria stage due to inherited tax liabilities of IDR 22.7 billion and related-party receivables of IDR 58.8 billion. The JV NewCo option achieves the highest Want score (84.1%), generates positive Net Profit Before Tax from Year 1 across all scenarios, and delivers an Net Present Value (NPV) of IDR 97.3 billion on an investment of IDR 5.25 billion (MOIC: 19.5×). The JV offers PT SAM the speed of an acquisition with a risk profile closer to a Greenfield, positioning the company as a multi-channel distributor with sustainable competitive advantage. The implementation plan consists of five phases, including company establishment, system development, and compliance with legal, financial, and tax requirements, with execution starting in June 2026. In the long term, integrating MT, GT, and e-commerce channels into a unified platform will position PT SAM as a multi-channel distributor capable of delivering comprehensive market access and sustainable competitive advantage.