Scenario-Based Strategic Capacity Planning for Powder Mixing Plant Using Discrete Event Modelling

Sales volume during the 2022–2024 period showed a positive upward trend, driving the company to increase machine capacity in order to enhance production and minimize opportunity losses. This study explores optimal strategies for increasing machine capacity using simulation method. Sales volume forecast data available from 2025 to 2035 is used as input for production simulations conducted using the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) method to determine the number of machines that need to be added, capacity increases, and the timing of machine additions. Scenario strategy variations are created based on the time horizon and method of adding machine capacity. The time horizon is medium term (five years) and long term (10 years). The method of adding machine capacity is through gradual and simultaneous additions. Machine utilization rates are used as a basis for capacity expansion. The research results indicate that the most effective scenario is Scenario 1 strategy of gradually adding machines over a period of 5 years, which involves adding two machines in 2026, increasing capacity by 325 million pcs/year and adding one machine in 2028 increases capacity by 162 million pcs/year. This scenario’s utilization pattern shows the best stability, ranging between 73%–78% throughout the 5-year period, without experiencing drastic fluctuations or significant periods of underutilization. By implementing the strategic recommendations, the company can optimize production processes in response to external uncertainties such as sales volume fluctuations.