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Trigger warning: The effect of ATF citations on U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking

Author

Listed:
  • Topher McDougal

    (Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego, CA, U.S.A)

  • Sean Campbell

    (Center for Journalism & Democracy, Howard University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A)

Abstract

Most firearms recovered from crime scenes in Mexico originate in legal U.S. retail markets, yet little is known about whether federal enforcement constrains this diversion. This article examines how compliance citations issued by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) affect subsequent firearms trafficking from U.S. Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs) to Mexico. ATF inspection-violation records are merged with more than 12,000 firearms traced from Mexican seizures and U.S. trafficking court cases, exploiting within-dealer variation over time. Across multiple model specifications, ATF citations are strongly associated with reductions in trafficking—each additional citation corresponds to a 20–44% decline in trafficked firearms, and cited dealers contribute substantially fewer trafficked guns than comparable uncited retailers. These results suggest that even limited regulatory enforcement can meaningfully disrupt illicit firearms supply chains upstream of cross-border smuggling.

Suggested Citation

  • Topher McDougal & Sean Campbell, 2026. "Trigger warning: The effect of ATF citations on U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 32-46, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:21:y:2026:i:1:p:32-46
    DOI: 10.15355/epsj.21.1.32
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    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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