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Taking stocks: Updating our understanding of U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking

Author

Listed:
  • Topher McDougal

    (Kroc School of Peace Studies, University of San Diego, CA, U.S.A)

  • Sean Campbell

    (Center for Journalism & Democracy, Howard University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A)

Abstract

Understanding the scale and dynamics of U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking has been hampered by severe restrictions on access to firearm trace data. This article updates empirical knowledge of the illicit cross-border gun trade by assembling and analyzing more than 28,000 firearm records drawn from leaked Mexican government trace data, official Mexican seizure records, and U.S. trafficking court cases. Using capture-recapture techniques, meta-estimation, and econometric analysis, it is estimated that roughly 85,000–135,000 firearms are trafficked from the United States into Mexico annually. There is a positive relationship between trafficking flows and homicide rates in Mexico, evidence of circular causation between police arms purchases and illegal gun seizures, and the continued concentration of trafficking among a small subset of U.S. dealers. Together, these findings refine prevailing estimates of trafficking volumes and illuminate the feedback mechanisms linking legal gun markets, illicit flows, and violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Topher McDougal & Sean Campbell, 2026. "Taking stocks: Updating our understanding of U.S.–Mexico firearms trafficking," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 21(1), pages 17-31, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:21:y:2026:i:1:p:17-31
    DOI: 10.15355/epsj.21.1.17
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    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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