India’s sustainable ascent: investigating the impact of economic growth, social dynamics and environmental policies on carbon emissions

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the intricate relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, economic growth, social dynamics and environmental policies in India from 1990 to 2022.Design/methodology/approachThe research employs a range of econometric techniques, including cointegration methods, unit root tests and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) estimation model, to analyse the data spanning 1990 to 2022. The study incorporates interaction terms between key variables such as energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP) growth and technological advancement to explore complex relationships.FindingsThe results indicate that energy consumption is a significant driver of CO2 emissions in both the long and short term. GDP growth and industrial value-added growth exhibit positive coefficients, suggesting potential increases in emissions, but these effects are not statistically significant. Population growth and urbanisation significantly negatively impact CO2 emissions, particularly in the short run. Including interaction terms between variables, such as energy consumption with GDP growth and technological advancement with GDP growth, reveals complex dynamics.Originality/valueWhile past research has explored the links between economic growth and CO2 emissions, this study offers three key advancements. First, Most existing studies focus on developed countries or global averages. India – with its rapid growth, unique social challenges and evolving climate policies – provides a critical but understudied case. India is now the world’s third-largest CO2 emitter, yet its development path differs from Western nations. Our findings help tailor policies to their context. Second, we employed long-term trends from 1990 to 2022. This 32-year span captures India’s economic liberalization in the 1990s, industrial boom in the 2000s and recent climate commitments. Third, unlike purely economic studies, we analyse how urbanization, education, and inequality intersect with policies. The research offers fresh insights into the complex dynamics at play by incorporating interaction terms and using advanced econometric techniques. The findings emphasise the need for targeted, nuanced policies that consider the multifaceted nature of economic development and environmental sustainability, offering valuable guidance for policymakers striving to balance these critical aspects in India’s context.