Long term versus warm phase, part II: hurricane loss analysis

Purpose - In general, the insurance industry accepts large risks due to the frequency and severity of extreme events. Because of the short record on hazard data for such events, a large amount of uncertainty has to be dealt with. Given this large uncertainty it is important to better quantify the hazard parameters that are defined as inputs to the catastrophe models. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the hurricane risk from loss point of view in the USA for both long‐term and warm phase conditions using a simulation‐based stochastic model. Design/methodology/approach - A Poisson process is used to simulate the occurrence of events for both conditions. The generated event‐sets were used along with vulnerability and cost models to estimate the loss to an insurance industry portfolio. The paper discusses the statistics of events categorized by the Saffir‐Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, annualized and return period losses and compares the results for both assumed long‐term and warm phase climate states. Findings - The analysis shows that the population of landfall data for the two climate conditions is not statistically different. However, if we accept that a difference in the frequency of landfall occurrence between the two assumptions exists, the increase in average annual loss is about 17 per cent. Originality/value - This paper provides insights to the difference between the two states of atmosphere from the point of view of insured losses for hurricanes and is one of the first papers that offers conclusion on the uncertainty associated with the warm phase data.