Capitalisation rates for commercial real estate investments: evidence from Australia

Purpose - The paper is motivated by the paucity of empirical research on the determinants of capitalisation rates/yield in the commercial property market. Compared to property price determinants, the capitalisation rate has received significantly less attention. This is somewhat surprising given that the capitalisation rate is a more insightful indicator for investors on commercial property market performance than merely price changes or trends. The capitalisation rate, measured as the ratio of net operating income to the property’s capital value, captures the asset’s overall ability to generate income which is crucial for investors who typically invest in property for their income-generating capacity. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues. Design/methodology/approach - To evaluate the determinants of capitalisation rates, time series analysis was used. The data capture performance in the Australian commercial property market between 2005 and 2018. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation’s central bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration amongst some of the I (1) variables, the autoregressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions. Findings - Bond rates, market risk premiums, stock market excess returns and other macroeconomic variables were found to drive capitalisation rates of Australian commercial properties. A 1% increase in the bond rate results in approximately 0.3–2.4% increase in capitalisation rates depending on the sub-market. Further, a 1% increase in excess market returns results in a 0.01–0.02% increase in capitalisation rates. Regarding risk premiums, a 100 basis point increase in the BBB spread results in approximately 0.92–1.27% reduction in cap rates in certain markets. Practical implications - Asset managers will find these results useful in asset allocation strategies. Commercial properties offer attractive investment qualities such as yield stability in periods of economic uncertainty while allowing for the possibility of capital growth through appreciation of the underlying asset. By understanding the factors that affect the capitalisation rate, practitioners may predict emerging trends and identify threats to portfolio return and stability. This allows better integration of commercial property in the construction of portfolios that remain robust in a variety of market conditions. Originality/value - The contribution to literature is significant given the lack of similar studies in the Australian market. The performance of real estate assets using cap rates as a comparative measure to equities and bonds influences decisions in asset allocation strategies. It provides crucial information for investors to estimate the performance of commercial property. This research supports the notion that both space and capital market indicators jointly affect capitalisation rates. The findings expand the knowledge base relating to commercial properties and validate the assessments of investors, developers and valuers who utilise yield as a performance benchmark for asset allocation strategies.