Solvency stress testing of Islamic commercial banks

Purpose - This paper aims to provide a methodology for designing and conducting solvency stress tests, under the standardised approach as per IFSB-15, including the establishment of macro-financial links, running scenarios with variation of assumptions and stress scenario parameters; apply and illustrate this methodology by providing a stylised numerical example through a tractable Excel-based framework, through which Islamic Commercial Banks (ICBs) can introduce additional regulatory requirements and show that they would remain in compliance with all capital requirements after a moderate to severe shock; and identify the potential remedial actions that can be envisaged by an ICB. Design/methodology/approach - The paper uses the data of the one of the groups to which certain amendments and related assumptions are applied to develop a stylised numerical example for solvency stress-testing purposes. The example uses a Stress Testing Matrix (STeM; a step-by-step approach) to illustrate the stress-testing process. The methodology of the paper uses a two-stage process. The first stage consists of calculating the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of the ICB using the IFSB formulae, depending on how the profit sharing investment account (PSIA) are treated in the respective jurisdiction. The second stage is the application of the stress scenarios and shocks. Findings - Taking into account the specificities of ICBs such as their use of PSIA, the results highlighted the sensitivity of the CAR of an ICB with respect to the changes in the values of alpha and the proportion of unrestricted PSIA on the funding side. The simulation also indicated that an ICB operating above the minimum CAR could be vulnerable to shocks of various degrees of gravity, thus bringing the CAR below the minimum regulatory requirement and necessitating appropriate remedial actions. Practical implications - The paper highlights various implications and relationships arising out of stress testing for ICBs, including the vulnerability of an ICB under defined scenarios, demanding appropriate immediate remedial actions on future capital resources and capital needs. The findings of the paper provide a preliminary discussion on developing a comprehensive toolkit for the ICBs similar to what is developed by the International Monetary Fund Financial Sector Assessment Programme. Originality/value - This paper focuses on the gap with respect to the stress testing of capital adequacy. The main contribution of the paper is twofold. The first is the development of an STeM – a step-by-step approach, which provides a method for simulating solvency (i.e. capital adequacy) stress tests for ICBs; the second is the demonstration of the potentially crucial impact of profit-sharing investment accounts and the way they are managed by ICBs (notably the smoothing of profit payouts) in assessing the capital adequacy of the ICBs.