Political patronage, and banks’ profitability in Bahrain

Purpose - This paper aims to contribute to the political connection literature by investigating the impact of political connection on banks’ profitability in Bahrain. Design/methodology/approach - Exploiting the unique natural experiment of the 2017 Qatar blockade crisis, this study uses primary data of political connection. The study uses the difference-in-difference (DID) methodology to investigate the effect of political connections on banks’ profitability. Findings - The main finding is that political connections have a positive effect on bank profitability in Bahrain. The paper finds that the ongoing GCC crisis has had a negative effect on the banking sector of Bahrain. During the Qatar blockade crisis, politically connected banks suffered more than their non-connected counterparts. Practical implications - The result suggests that the Qatar blockade crisis has had a notable effect on the banking system throughout the region, including both the boycotting countries as well as Qatar. In the banking sector, politically connected banks are the most harmed by the crisis. Investors can enhance their hedging and investment decisions by exploiting knowledge of how political connections affected bank profitability during the Qatar diplomatic crisis and how that effect can be transmitted from one market to another. In addition, regulators could use insights about the association between political connections and profitability in Bahrain to undertake strategies to increase banks’ profitability and mitigate the transmission effect of a crisis by ensuring adequate regulation and supervision. Originality/value - This paper offers four novel contributions to political connection literature as follows: Firstly, the study fills in an important gap in the literature as it is the first attempt to quantify the impact of political connections on bank performance in Bahrain. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the role of political factors in Bahrain has not been studied about the banking system. Secondly, the study depends on primary data about political connections collected manually from various sources. Thirdly, this is the first study to investigate the effect of the Qatar blockade on the banking sector. Lastly, the evidence suggests that politically connected banks are more profitable than banks that lack political connections. However, the Qatar blockade crisis resulted in a sharp decrease in bank profitability, suggesting that the crisis significantly harmed the banking sector in Bahrain.