IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jfeppp/v4y2012i4p305-319.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linkages between Thai stock and foreign exchange markets under the floating regime

Author

Listed:
  • Komain Jiranyakul

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of the present study is to directly examine the relationship between bilateral exchange rate and stock market index in a bivariate framework during the period of the floating exchange rate regime in Thailand. Design/methodology/approach - The monthly data used in this study are the stock market index or stock prices from the Stock Exchange of Thailand, and the nominal bilateral exchange rate in terms of baht per US dollar from the Bank of Thailand. The period covers July 1997 to June 2010 with 156 observations. This is the period that the country switched from fixed to floating exchange rate regime. The stock market return is calculated by the percentage change of stock market index (or stock prices) while the exchange rate return is the percentage change of the nominal bilateral exchange rate. Three estimation methods are used to capture the interaction between stock and foreign exchange markets: bounds testing for cointegration, non-causality test, and the two-step approach with a bivariate GARCH model and Granger causality test. Findings - The results of the present study show that bounds testing for cointegration does not detect the long-run relationship between stock prices and exchange rate. In addition, the non-causality test fails the diagnostic test for multivariate normality in the residuals of the estimated VAR model. However, the two-step approach adequately detects the linkages between the stock and foreign exchange markets. It is found that there exists positive unidirectional causality running from stock market return to exchange rate return. The exchange rate risk causes stock return to fall as expected. Moreover, there are bidirectional causal relations between stock market risk and exchange rate risk, but in different directions. Research limitations/implications - Since a rising trend in the risk in the foreign exchange market causes stock return to fall, both domestic and foreign investors should be aware of the risk or uncertainty in the foreign exchange market because it can cause their portfolio return to fall. For policymakers, reducing exchange rate risk cannot be done without the associated costs from a rising risk in the stock market. Originality/value - This study provides an evidence of volatility (or risk) spillovers in stock and foreign exchange markets. In addition, the risk in foreign exchange market that adversely affects return in the stock market is an expected phenomenon under the floating exchange rate regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Komain Jiranyakul, 2012. "Linkages between Thai stock and foreign exchange markets under the floating regime," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 305-319, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:v:4:y:2012:i:4:p:305-319
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/10.1108/17576381211279280?utm_campaign=RePEc&WT.mc_id=RePEc
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nararuk Boonyanam, 2014. "Relationship of Stock Price and Monetary Variables of Asian Small Open Emerging Economy: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(1), pages 52-63, January.
    2. Walid M. A. Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic interactions between Egyptian equity and currency markets prior to and during political unrest," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1347-1359, October.
    3. repec:ksp:journ5:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:v:4:y:2012:i:4:p:305-319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Virginia Chapman). General contact details of provider: http://www.emeraldinsight.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.